Precipitation Timing

6 to 10 a.m. Saturday

Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will develop across the New River and Roanoke Valleys, with rain across Southeastern Virginia. Low temperatures early Saturday morning will range from 27 to 31 degrees and moderate precipitation could keep temperatures below freezing through much of the morning. To the north, snow will develop by mid-morning across Northern and Central Virginia, with rain east of I-95.

10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturday

Models have been persistent that freezing rain may hold on into the early afternoon across the New River and Roanoke Valleys, which is why we are considered about moderate to significant icing. Moderate to potentially heavy bursts of snow are possible across the Northern and Central Shenandoah Valley, as well as the Northern Piedmont (north of Charlottesville to Leesburg.)  Fredericksburg to DC will be on the "line" from a wintry mix to all rain as temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s.  All rain is expected in Richmond with temperatures beginning to rise in the afternoon into the 40s with an easterly wind off the water.

3 p.m. to 8 p.m. Saturday

As we move into late afternoon through early evening on Saturday, freezing rain ends across the Roanoke and New River Valleys, but periods of ice will continue from Charlottesville to Lynchburg in the Virginia Piedmont.  Heavy snow is possible across Northern Virginia, west of Interstate 95, with a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow across the D.C. area.  The system will exit the region after 10 p.m. Saturday.

Snow & Ice Forecast

Using a blend of models, and ensembles, plus looking at the overall setup, we feel the European model is too warm and tends to overperform when it comes to warm air.  Also, this model has the placement of low-pressure furthest to the west, while the remaining models are to the east.  The Canadian model typically overperforms on icing, however, most models show "reasonable" icing amounts given the setup and temperatures around freezing on Saturday.

Snow across the Northern and Central Shenandoah Valley, with 2 to 4 inches just south and east.  There will be a tight gradient from a coating to an inch in the D.C. area to 2 or 3 inches in Leesburg and 4 to 6 inches in Winchester.

Across the Roanoke and New River Valley, confidence is lower on accumulating snow as warmer air will work in at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which could mean a quick change over to sleet and freezing rain. We are forecasting up to one-quarter of an inch of ice across the Roanoke and New River Valleys, and possibly into portions of the Lynchburg area.

With cold, sub-freezing temperatures early Saturday morning, the ground and pavement will be cold.  We expect ice and snow to stick on any untreated pavement, elevated surface, bridges, and overpasses. Please give space between you and other drivers around you and respect VDOT as they go out and salt and clear the roads. Reduce your speed as you have less control with ice vs. snow. DO NOT slam on your brakes! Slamming on your brakes can immediately put you in a skid. If you feel like you're getting into trouble, gradually let off the accelerator. Doing this will help you regain control of the vehicle.