Some strong storms Sunday PM, Increasing severe threat Monday

Written on 08/05/2023
Michael Murray

A warm front (with a low-pressure system across Indiana and Ohio) will move across our region late Sunday, followed by a slow-moving cold front moving eastward Monday into Tuesday.  This sets the stage for the potential for severe weather late Sunday (isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms) and Monday afternoon/evening (scattered to possibly numerous severe thunderstorms.) 

 


Sunday August 6


Some strong storms Sunday PM, Increasing severe threat Monday

Sunday: 

  • Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southwestern Virginia, including the New River and Roanoke Valleys (2 p.m. to 9 p.m.)
  • Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the Northern and Central Virginia Piedmont and Shenandoah Valley -- including the Blue Ridge (5 p.m. to 10 p.m.) 

Some strong storms Sunday PM, Increasing severe threat Monday

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across Southwestern Virginia mid to late Sunday afternoon, as a warm front begins to lift across the region.  Some storms could produce damaging winds, frequent lightning, hail, and an isolated tornado.


Some strong storms Sunday PM, Increasing severe threat Monday

By Sunday evening into Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms will move into Northern Virginia. There is a chance that some of these storms could be severe in the evening. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.


Monday, August 7


Some strong storms Sunday PM, Increasing severe threat Monday

 

  • Slight Risk for severe weather northwest of US Route 360.
  • Increasing confidence for severe weather late-Monday afternoon through Monday evening across ALL of Northern Virginia, portions of Central Virginia, Shenandoah Valley, and all of Southwestern Virginia.

Some strong storms Sunday PM, Increasing severe threat Monday

There is the concern that discrete cells may form ahead of a line of thunderstorms Monday afternoon. These storms have the greatest threat of producing large hail and tornadoes.  A main line of thunderstorms may develop across Western/Southwestern Virginia and move east Monday evening.  This line of thunderstorms would be capable of producing damaging winds and hail.  Most of the severe weather on Monday will likely remain west/northwest of US Route 360 (or a line from Tappahannock - Richmond - Farmville  - South Boston)


Bottom Line:

  • All modes of severe weather are POSSIBLE on Monday. 
  • The GREATEST RISK will be for ALL locations west/northwest of US Route 360 (west of Tappahannock - Richmond - Farmville - South Boston.) 
  • While confidence has INCREASED, the placement of severe weather could change between now and Monday.
  • Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, and our Virginia Weather Network app for more updates.