Severe Thunderstorms are LIKELY this afternoon and evening across much of Northern and Central Virginia.

- Cells that develop ahead of the main line could produce tornadoes.
- Damaging straight-line winds are possible along the line of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
- Large hail, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall are also elevated to moderate threats.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of Northern and Central Virginia in a 45 percent threat for severe wind. Several discrete supercells and/or along the main line of thunderstorms will likely produce damaging winds/straight-line winds 60 to 80 mph. 

1:00 to 4:00 p.m. Monday
Thunderstorms will develop across Southwestern and Western Virginia and slowly move eastward.  In reality vs. modeling, storms usually fire up 1 to 2 hours earlier than what was forecast/modeled, so the general rule I make is to push these storms back by around one hour. 

By 4:00 p.m., these storms should reach the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge.  This is when problems could arise as there is plenty of fuel ahead of these thunderstorms to provide growth and severity.  Some of these thunderstorms could produce tornadoes and damaging winds greater than 70 mph.

Across Southern Virginia, the nature of these storms could be more scattered and not widespread. However, any storm across this area will also be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail. 

4:00 to 7:00 p.m. Monday
Discrete supercells ahead of a line of severe thunderstorms will merge with a line of severe thunderstorms. This line will move into the Virginia Piedmont (between the Blue Ridge and I-95 Corridor) around 4 p.m. and then reach Interstate 95 between 5 to 7 p.m.  Some of the models delay thunderstorms until 7 p.m. -- however, in reality vs. models, I think these storms will be across the Interstate 95 Corridor closer to 6 p.m.  These storms will likely reach their peak across Central and Northern Virginia with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall.

7:00 to 10:00 p.m. Monday
Severe thunderstorms will weaken as they cross Interstate 95 and head to the Chesapeake Bay Region.  While these storms may still pack a punch with gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, but not as severe as they started out to the west.  The Northern Neck and Middle Penninsula can still expect strong thunderstorms with the potential for a few of these storms along the line to produce strong, gusty winds. 

Across Hampton Roads, there remains a huge question in regard to if thunderstorms make it across the region, as most models dissipate these storms before reaching Suffolk, Norfolk, Newport News, and Virginia Beach.  However, given some of the shear and high dew points ahead of the line, I do think there will be some strong thunderstorms that make it into Hampton Roads, but will be widely scattered and not widespread. 

Use the Virginia Weather Network app for the latest information on the storm, including radar and future radar. There are also "layers" where you can toggle to see current alerts AND receive push notifications when there is a warning in your area.   

During a severe thunderstorm, remember to stay away from windows, remain downstairs, and IF a tornado warning occurs, move to the interior portion of your home, such as a closet or hallway.  You want to put as many walls between you as possible.  It is also a good idea to protect your head with either a mattress or a helmet.