Thursday's storm system will determine what happens next weekend (January 6-7, 2024.) As of now, Thursday's system looks mainly weak and uneventful as low-pressure tracks too far south. Southern Virginia and Hampton Roads could see some rain and there may be some snow flying in the mountains, but this should be fairly light. This storm moves off the coast and ends up being what we call the "50/50 low," which means 50N and 50W are the latitude/longitude of where the low typically comes to fruition and is located around Newfoundland, Canada. Then, colder air moves in across the Eastern United States for the end of the week and into the weekend.
The 50/50 low would set up the storm for next weekend and would also determine exactly where an area of low-pressure forms and either moves inland or forms along the coast. There may also be another area of weakening low-pressure across the Ohio Valley before the main low develops to the east. That typically never spells good news for snow lovers as lots of warm air can move in across the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
Most model guidance - especially ensembles - as it's VERY important to focus on ensembles and NOT model runs - continue to show some type of impacts for Southwestern Virginia and Shenandoah Valley in the form of snow and/or ice. It is possible that the Virginia Piedmont (east of the Blue Ridge and west of I-95) could also see wintry precipitation, but these are details that need to be ironed out as we continue to watch over the next several days. At this point, surface temperatures along and east of Interstate 95 look too warm for any frozen precipitation. It's ultimately going to depend on the track of low pressure.
Once again, it's going to all come down to the strength of Thursday's system. If it remains weak along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast, then there are better odds that more wintry weather is in play for next weekend. If it turns out to be stronger and brings rain across the Lower Mid-Atlantic with some mountain snow, then this could potentially send much warmer air from the Pacific into the region and an inland low-pressure system for next weekend, which would mean mostly rain, even mixed precipitation going over to rain for the Shenandoah Valley. The teleconnections look decent across the Atlantic, but they are not great in the Pacific. So a weak low on Thursday would be the best bet IF you want wintry weather for next weekend.